EURUSD Forex Trading Report | Technical Analysis | Updated for 1.4.2024
Based on the latest currency market data, this forex analysis aims to supply daily insight into the trading performance of the EURUSD currency pair as of January 4, 2024. It covers daily, weekly, and monthly movement changes, the weekly correlation with the FGC Dollar Indicator (our Proprietary US Dollar Forex Indicator), the trading condition, and predictive trading ranges.
Analyzing Forex Market Sentiment
- Percentage Changes:
- Day-Over-Day Change: An increase of 0.26% from the previous day.
- Week-Over-Week Change: A decline of 1.41% over the past week.
- Month-Over-Month Change: A modest increase of 0.52% over the past month.
- Correlation and Trading Condition:
- Weekly Correlation vs. FGC Dollar Indicator: A strong negative correlation at -0.9640.
- Trading Condition: The pair continues to be classified as ‘Oversold’, indicating potential price exhaustion for US Dollar Bulls, possibly triggering a further market correction or rebound to the upside.
- Key Support/Resistance Levels:
- Lower Extreme: 1.0857
- Lower Level: 1.0919
- Mid-Level: 1.0982
- Upper Level: 1.1045
- Upper Extreme: 1.1107
- Predictive Trading Range Probabilities:
- Upper Range (15.15% Chance): More Than or Equal to 1.1046
- Mid-Range (30.04% Chance): More Than or Equal to 1.1015
- Lower Range (58.42% Chance): More Than or Equal to 1.0969
Forex Trading Strategies for Volatile Markets
- Positive Daily Movement: The increase in the day-over-day change suggests a potential shift or correction from the recent downward trend.
- Negative Weekly Trend: Despite the recent daily gain, the significant week-over-week decrease highlights ongoing bearish sentiment in the short term.
- Slight Monthly Uptrend: The month-over-month increase indicates underlying strength or recovery in the medium term.
- Persisting Oversold Condition: The ‘Oversold’ status suggests the currency pair might possibly stage an upward market correction.
- Trading Strategy Considerations:
- The support and resistance levels show 1.0982 (Mid-Level) as a potentially crucial technical area for short-term market direction.
- The predictive trading range probabilities suggest a higher likelihood (58.42%) of the pair moving above 1.0969, indicating potential solid support around this technical level.
- The relatively lower probability (15.15%) of surpassing 1.1046 points to technical resistance near the upper range.
Currency Market News and Upcoming Economic Data
Release Date (1.5.2024):
- Non-Farm Employment Change
- Unemployment Rate
- Average Hourly Earnings m/m
- ISM Services PMI
- Factory Orders m/m
- FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Conclusion: The EURUSD pair showed a rebound in daily performance but continues a bearish price action trend on a weekly basis. The month-over-month data and the ‘Oversold’ condition show potential for an upward correction. The strong negative correlation with the FGC Dollar Indicator and the predictive trading range probabilities remains key technically for traders, suggesting essential levels of support and resistance to watch in this volatile market environment.
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