The latest data for the EUR/USD currency pair as of December 20, 2023, reflects a slight shift in its recent performance, with changes in daily movement, week-over-week, and month-over-month trends, along with an update in the weekly correlation against the FGC Dollar Indicator (our proprietary US Dollar Indicator), and new predictive trading ranges.
Current Trading Performance Following US Close on 12.20.2023
- Percentage Changes:
- Day-Over-Day Change: A decrease of 0.36% from the previous day.
- Week-Over-Week Change: The pair shows a growth of 1.36% over the past week.
- Month-Over-Month Change: A modest increase of 0.83% over the past month.
- Correlation and Strength:
- Weekly Correlation vs. FGC Dollar Indicator: A strong negative correlation at -0.9384.
- Trading Condition: Remains ‘Neutral’, indicating relatively flat volatility.
- Key Support/Resistance Levels:
- Lower Extreme: 1.0862
- Lower Level: 1.0896
- Mid-Level: 1.0930
- Upper Level: 1.0964
- Upper Extreme: 1.0998
- Predictive Trading Range Probabilities:
- Upper Range (29.86% Chance): More Than or Equal to 1.0948
- Mid-Range (64.15% Chance): Less Than or Equal to 1.0943
- Lower Range (53.03% Chance): Less Than or Equal to 1.0933
Analysis
- Recent Downward Adjustment: The day-over-day decrease contrasts with the overall positive week-over-week trend, indicating short-term volatility.
- Medium-Term Growth: Despite the daily dip, the pair maintains an overall upward trend on a weekly and monthly basis.
- Correlation Dynamics: The negative correlation with the FGC Dollar Indicator is slightly less strong than in previous reports but remains significant for trading strategies against other Forex pairs such as GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, etc.
- Neutral Market Condition: The continued ‘Neutral’ trading condition suggests a market that is not excessively bullish or bearish. As mentioned in the report yesterday, this posture seems logical ahead of the Core PCE Price Index, the preferred inflation measure of the Feds, later this week.
Other US Economic News Potentially Impacting EUR/USD includes: Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.
- Trading Strategy Considerations:
- The support and resistance levels highlight 1.0930 (Mid-Level) as a potential pivot or inflection point in market movements.
- The predictive trading range probabilities suggest a higher likelihood of the pair crossing below 1.0943 (64.15% chance).
- The chance of crossing above 1.0948 is relatively lower (29.86%), which might indicate potential resistance near this level.
Risk Disclosure: Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, cryptocurrency (cryptocurrencies), Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Trade at your Own Risk: Read Full Risk Disclosure @ https://www.franklinglobalcapital.com/disclosure