Losing Streak Probability Calculator
An interactive probability calculator for evaluating hypothetical trading outcomes. Adjust the inputs to investigate the effect of different assumptions. Results are mathematical illustrations, not forecasts or verified strategy performance.
Define Your Assumptions
Loss rate is 100% minus win rate
Independent trades in the sample
Streak of this length or longer
Optional fixed percentage of remaining equity
Calculated Outcomes
Enter assumptions to calculate a losing-streak probability.
How to Interpret the Result
“At least one such losing streak” includes streaks at any point in the series and longer streaks. It is computed with an exact finite-state probability recurrence under the assumption of independent, identically distributed win/loss outcomes. The single-sequence probability instead refers only to the first specified trades. Drawdown assumes every loss reduces remaining equity by the same percentage, with no intervening gains in the streak. Real trading results can violate the independence and constant-win-rate assumptions.